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How to read these numbers (the honest part)

Sourced vs computed: Phase I/II selection rates (applications → awards) come from the SBA's SBIR/STTR Annual Report — FY2022 is the latest published edition, and SBA itself calls the rates estimates because proposal cohorts span fiscal years. Phase I→II conversion and first-timer shares are computed by us from sbir.gov's public award records. Per-topic conversion uses only cohorts old enough to have had a full 3-year Phase II window; younger awards show as “too recent”, never as failures.

What nobody publishes: per-topic application counts are published by no one — not the agencies, and not the $500–$42,000-a-year intelligence platforms either; the data simply isn't public. Any per-topic number on this site is award-side only (who won, how often winners repeat), never your odds of selection.

Sources: sbir.gov award data · SBA FY22 Annual Report. Free to use; verify anything critical against the originals.