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S5

NASA · 98 awards from 2010 to 2022 · 60 distinct firms

Awards in this topic include: “Observation Planning in Spaceline” · “Low Cost, Low Power, Low Latency 1602 nm 100 Gbps NRZ Laser‚ÄìEAM for a 7.2 Tbps Transmitt” · “Advanced Climatology Innovations for Space Radiation Environments”

What awards in this topic are actually worth

Median Phase I award $124,943

Middle half of awards fell between $124,800 and $124,990 (68 Phase I awards).

Median Phase II award $749,968

Middle half fell between $749,879 and $749,999 (30 Phase II awards).

Award values are as reported by the agency to sbir.gov. For contract awards that is the value of the award, which for multi-year instruments covers several years rather than a single year's funding.

Who wins here

Distinct firms that have won 60

Across 98 awards.

Share held by the top 3 firms 16.3%

The single biggest winner, ASCENDING NODE TECHNOLOGIES LLC, holds 6.1% (6 of 98).

First-time winners at NASA 21

of 60 firms had no prior NASA award before winning here (39 were returning winners). This is the closest honest answer to “can a newcomer win in this topic”.

Phase I → Phase II conversion (inferred)

39.7% of the 68 Phase I awards in this topic have a Phase II we could link to them (27 of 68).

This is our estimate, not an official figure. No agency publishes an award ID linking a Phase II back to its Phase I, so we match on firm, agency and topic code. It is also not your odds of winning — it is the share of Phase I winners who went on to a Phase II. How this is computed, and what it can't tell you.

Most awards in this topic

FirmAwardsShare
ASCENDING NODE TECHNOLOGIES LLC6 6.1%
PREDICTIVE SCIENCE INCORPORATED6 6.1%
SPACE ENVIRONMENT TECHNOLOGIES, LLC4 4.1%
PHOTON SCIENCES, INCORPORATED3 3.1%
Phoenix Integration, Inc.3 3.1%

Firms are counted by federal UEI where available. sbir.gov has backfilled UEIs to 99.5% coverage for 2025 awards; a company that re-registered may appear more than once in older years, which would understate concentration slightly.

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Sources and caveats (the honest part)

Sourced vs computed: Phase I/II selection rates (applications → awards) come from the SBA's SBIR/STTR Annual Report — FY2022 is the latest published edition, and SBA itself calls the rates estimates because proposal cohorts span fiscal years. Phase I→II conversion and first-timer shares are computed by us from sbir.gov's public award records. Linked by firm + agency + topic code where topic codes carry (suffix-tolerant for DOE's phase renumbering), with a title-similarity fallback elsewhere. 70% of links match on topic, 30% on title; each pair's match_tier is in the downloadable CSV, so you can recompute under stricter rules. Firms are identified by federal UEI where available (99.5% of 2025 awards, down to 54% for 2001), with a normalized-name fallback for older records.

Fast-track and Direct-to-Phase-II: no agency publishes a fast-track flag, so we derive it — HHS/NIH: a Phase I record carrying a Phase II activity code (R44/R42/U44) plus its linked Phase II; NSF: the 2024 Fast-Track pilot solicitation (NSF 24-582). Where fast-track exists, conversion is shown both organic (fast-tracks excluded) and all-inclusive, because a fast-track Phase II was committed at award time, not competed. DoD's Direct-to-Phase-II share is different in kind: there is no marker at all, so our number is an inference (Phase IIs with no same-firm DoD Phase I in the prior 3 years), always labeled an estimate and kept visually separate from measured stats.

What nobody publishes: per-topic application counts are published by no one — not the agencies, and not the $500–$42,000-a-year intelligence platforms either; the data simply isn't public. Any per-topic number on this site is award-side only (who won, how often winners repeat), never your odds of selection.

Sources: sbir.gov award data · SBA FY22 Annual Report. Free to use; verify anything critical against the originals.